XZ-1 Sunset

Clouds illuminated from below by the setting sun

Busy evening yesterday, installing an over-the-range microwave. We've been very fortunate here to encounter some remarkable people in the trades. Derrick Marsh is just the nicest guy. He was here for about two and a half hours getting this microwave wired and installed.

I'm loving it here. We took a little walk around "the property" (sounds very pretentious), and imagined where we might build another house, keeping this one as a guest house.

There may be some snow in the offing tomorrow night, we'll see how she feels then.

Got the weather station on the new network. YouTube is your friend here. Ordered some flood sensors. We're not here long enough for me to figure out setting up a solenoid valve to cut off the water in the event of a leak, but that'll be a project for this summer. As it stands, if we get a report of a leak, we'll ask the neighbors to check it out.

It's a gamble, buying these IoT devices. A significant number of the reviews are negative regarding connectivity issues, device malfunctions or battery life. I went with Aquara, as that's what I'm using for cameras. They're not ideal, but they seem to work and I was able to switch them over to the new network without developing a throbbing vein in my temple.

Spent a lot of money at Home Depot yesterday, adding tools to what I brought up here from home. Partly trying to anticipate price increases due to tariffs, and partly as a hedge against a potential SHTF scenario. I'm certain I don't have anywhere near what I'd need, but I'm in better shape than I was yesterday. Being friendly with the neighbors is probably the best investment in that regard.

It was cloudy most of the day, clearing a bit toward the afternoon. I'd put the little Olympus XZ-1 on charge earlier today and used it for this shot. It may be my imagination, but there's something about this landscape that "feels like home."

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 16:39 Wednesday, 20 November 2024

Morning Twilight

Clouds illuminated from sunlight below the horizon.

Got up early hoping to get a shot of the waning gibbous moon, but not early enough I guess. Just as I stepped outside, a line of clouds passed overhead. They were thin, and I could make out the moon, but it would have been a very soft shot.

The clouds were drifting south, so it would be a while before the moon emerged again. I came inside and checked my RSS feeds.

Stepped back out and the clouds had spread, thinner now, but the moon wasn't going to emerge from them anytime soon. I took a few shots, all soft. Looked behind me and saw this.

Always look behind you. "Never look back," may be good life advice, but it doesn't apply to photography.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 06:26 Tuesday, 19 November 2024

On the Road

In DC this morning with Mitzi's daughter and son-in-law. Back on the road later this morning. About six hours to Burdett, depending on how long we dawdle for gas and lunch.

It's been kind of depressing being here for me. We went to dinner last night and drove past the building that houses the Heritage Foundation. They had some kind of event and many of their members were standing around. A wave of revulsion overcame me.

Anyway, checked my feeds this morning, and I'm reminded that there's more here than meets the eye.

Commended to your reading are posts from John P. Weiss and Steve Makovsky.

All we ever have are moments to live, and the only power we have is the power to choose. I've been writing about these things for decades now. You'd think I wouldn't need to be reminded of them.

It's different, though. The shadow I cast lies before me now, and I can almost see it lengthen before my eyes.

What to do with the time left?

Not die in Florida is one.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 06:58 Sunday, 17 November 2024

A Place to Land

I've been thinking about the Finger Lakes place was our climate haven. But as a pair of aging seniors with some health concerns, perhaps it's not ideal.

Before we get too committed, it's probably wise to review other options. Selling this place, makes many options available. We could leverage the sunk cost of the FLX house to our advantage, but it's not the only play.

You can download a pdf of a Cumulative Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) for Natural Hazards, and kind of survey the landscape. I was pleased to see Schulyer County in the top half of the 25 counties in EPA Region 2, while of the 25 highest-rated counties in EPA Region 4 (basically the southeast), only three of them were in Florida.

I'll have to study this document, because some of its analysis is unclear to me, and I wouldn't recommend anyone to jump to any conclusions. Region 4 has a 100% inland flooding risk, but only a 12% coastal flooding risk. It's unclear to me how that's reasonable.

Similarly, this is a 2020 update of a 2017 report. The Fort Lauderdale event (25" of rain in 24 hours without a hurricane) was in 2023. I don't know if the data set this analysis was based on includes these high-intensity/long duration rainfall events (HILDRE - I just made that up.) that are beginning to manifest all over the world. I'm guessing it doesn't and we're probably due for an update.

It's anyone's guess if one will be forthcoming with the new (old) administration coming into office.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 15:33 Thursday, 14 November 2024

ANSI Social Media In Emergencies

Never thought I'd see something like this. Of course, at $124.00 for the pdf, it's very likely I never will.

You can view the table of contents.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 15:30 Thursday, 14 November 2024

Flood Insurance

This is kind of a "good news" story. FEMA is going to let you pay monthly installments for your flood insurance. I'm sure there'll be lots of rules and details in the implementation, but I think it's a good call and overdue. We just pay the whole nut upfront now. I can do that, many people can't.

But that's not why I'm embedding the video. If nothing else, skip ahead to the 50s point.

Florida is too risky for seniors. Get the hell out while you still can.

<blockquote>"We've never flooded. As long as I've been here, we've never had an issue." </blockquote>

Your house was never in this climate before.

Nobody's house was.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 08:04 Wednesday, 13 November 2024

Toys

The IIe I bought as a kind of self-care in the aftermath of the election debacle arrived yesterday. It held some surprises.

For the most part, I've been exceptionally lucky in my recent purchases from the auction site.

The only bad luck has been the damage in shipment to a IIc, which was a bargain since the listing was only for the external IIc disk drive. I'm still looking for a replacement space bar, though at some point I'll just have to figure out a way to attach the stabilizer wire to the space bar it does have. The bottoms of the two plastic clips that secure the stabilizer wire broke off, and you need that wire to be able to use your right thumb to hit the space bar.

Well, that and a replacement internal IIc drive that was supposed to arrive this week and I received a t-shirt! Got a refund, but wow. (The internal drive of the "bonus" IIc has a broken latch. Still works, but it's not very attractive.)

The first IIe I bought was a very early model, a REV A motherboard. But it came with a working Monitor III, the Apple monitor III stand for the Apple II, a Kensington System Saver, a Hayes (or CH) Mach 3 joystick, two 5.25" drives, and everything survived an otherwise unsatisfactory packaging effort. It was a bargain for the amount I paid for it, especially since the seller wasn't even certain if it worked.

Likewise, this IIe is also an early model, which means it's in a painted case. Neither of my IIe computers has yellowed due to exposure to UV light. They were dirty, but they cleaned right up. Very few blemishes, and the product badges on both machines are near-perfect.

This IIe is a REV B, so it has the motherboard modifications that permit double high-resolution graphics. (140x192, 15 colors - 16 if you count two grays). It also already has the 65c02 processor and "enhanced" ROMs.

But what came as a surprise were some items that weren't in the pictures or the description. The most significant one is a 1MB Applied Engineering RamFactor card. This was a clone of an Apple RAM disk designed to go in any slot of any Apple II. An enhanced IIe could even boot from it, once an operating system had been copied to it. The Applied Engineering clone added a unique feature. A power connection on the card that delivered 8vdc to the card to keep the RAM contents even when power was off to the cpu. So you could boot from the RAM disk at any time.

Power was provided by another Applied Engineering product, the RamCharger. It was a power supply and 8vdc battery, which maintained the contents of the card for several hours in the event of a power loss.

Well, in a small box inside this well-packaged purchase, was a RamCharger, complete with power cables! I'd never seen one back in the day, apart from ads of course. It appears to be in good shape, no swollen or leaking capacitors. The battery is likely useless, but a quick search revealed they're still being made and sold.

Now, there are modern replacements for the "Slinky" (Apple's code-name for the device.) RAM cards. Much smaller, and one even offered battery backup from a coin-cell battery. But they're not currently in stock. (The non-battery backed ones are.) Ideally, I'd like to have one of those. But it might be kind of fun getting this up and running, if I can.

The listing said it included a 5.25" disk drive. Well, again, apparently this was a naive seller. There was an original 3.5" 400K Mac disk drive (single-sided) included in the package. That puzzled me until I found out what an unidentified card in the computer was. I asked on Applefritter and quickly learned it was a Universal Disk Controller (UDC). The previous owner likely used it with the 3.5" Mac drive.

I have a modern replacement, the Yellowstone card from BMOW (Big Mess O'Wires). More about that in a minute. But nice to have one for each computer.

There were some other cards, a 300 baud Hayes Micromodem, a printer buffer, and a Sider HD interface card. None of those are especially interesting to me, but there was also an Apple 64K RGB video interface card that plugs into the Aux Slot. RGB monitors are a bit hard to find and pricey, and there's no guarantee they'll survive shipping, but the card intrigues me. Not a priority, but I expect there's an RGB monitor in my future at some point. It also has the updated Disk II interface card (the "IO Card") which will be useful with the //c external disk drive, though I could also use the UDC, if that's still functional.

I pulled all the cards out and turned the computer on and it beeped. I connected a monitor and ran the internal self-test and got a satisfactory response. I'll run a full suite of diagnostics at some point, but we're getting ready to head up to New York on Friday and I have some stuff I have to do for that trip.

I spent some time the past few days with the first IIe, plugging in some new cards I bought. I learned that at least one feature of one of the cards won't work in a REV A IIe. That's the A2FPGA, and the SuperSprite board won't work in a REV A. I wasn't able to get the Mockingboard feature to work either, so I don't know if that's a REV A incompatibility or something else. There's no audio connector on the card that I could find, so audio must come via the HDMI connection, so it may be the monitor. In any case, I was unable to test the Mockingboard function.

I also bought an old Echo II speech synthesizer and tested that. I learned that the Yellowstone Smartport emulator doesn't like it when the Echo card is installed, just like with the SpeedDemon accelerator. And I can't seem to boot the computer from a hard drive image on the Floppy Emu attached to the Yellowstone card. (If all that makes no sense, don't worry about it.)

What I can do, is boot from a 5.25" floppy into ProDOS, and then the computer can see the HD image on the Floppy Emu from ProDOS. So the good news is that I do have access to 32MB virtual HD images, which saves a lot of disk swapping.

In any event, the Echo II works fine. I enjoy the sound of those old TI speech synthesis chips.

I am experiencing something akin to happiness or a small amount of joy from playing with new (old) toys. I'm also causing more challenges for myself, in that I have no real space to set these things up. If I sell this 27" iMac and get rid of this desk, I may be able to reconfigure the office to accommodate at least one of the IIe computers.

I'm not sure how long we'll be here, so I'm reluctant to undertake anything very permanent.

But it's stuff that can distract me from the catastrophe unfolding around us.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 05:20 Wednesday, 13 November 2024

Florida Men (and Woman)

While I make no effort to follow the news, it nevertheless finds me.

Michael Waltz will be the new National Security Advisor. Can't say he's a "neighbor" but he supposedly lives nearby. He's a "just the tip" seditionist. He had intended to object to the electors on January 6th, but changed his mind after the insurrection. He's also a veteran of the "storming the SCIF action" during the impeachment hearings.

Waltz is a veteran, a colonel in the National Guard. I was careful to write that military service gives one the opportunity to learn about meaning. It doesn't guarantee that anyone will.

In the absence of meaning, the emptiness at the heart of such men births ambition. A form of desire that aims to fill the emptiness within with rank, title, authority, wealth or achievement. This is what defines Waltz and Scott and probably Rubio. They have no character, per se. That is, no intrinsic sense of self or identity that keeps them upright. They will bend whichever way their blind ambition pushes them.

Susie Wiles is a familiar name. She's a veteran of Florida zero-sum politics. She has had some experience in governance, but the majority of her career has been in politics as sport. I'm not expecting great things in terms of ameliorating Orange Jesus' worst flaws, and I don't expect her to last very long. But who knows? Saturated in Florida politics, I don't detect much in the way of character. Choosing her boss is perhaps all anyone needs to know. Ambition. Position. Emptiness.

Winning an election isn't the same as governing, though all Florida Republicans make that mistake.

Florida is two states, one for the privileged and the other is ignored. Or it used to be ignored. Now it is targeted. America will be the same.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 05:06 Wednesday, 13 November 2024

The Gospel According to Cohen

<img src=“https://nice-marmot.net/Archives/2024/Images/IMG_0314.JPG" alt=“Photo of a baseball cap with the words, “Don’t give up the ship” embroidered on it.">

This is the hat I wear on my morning walks these days. You can see the sweat ring beginning to form, and the darkness of today's perspiration.

Anyway, Leonard Cohen's Suzanne came to mind as I walked this morning. I was thinking about encountering a neighbor who might "thank you for your service" me. (I didn't.)

As you may be able to tell, I'm coping with recent events by blogging a lot here. So, in that vein, let me say to all the hypothetical, insincere people who might feel as though they ought to "thank you for your service" me: Your thanks are not required.

It was an honor and a privilege to serve America under oath, in uniform for twenty-six years, twenty-two of them as a commissioned officer in the United States Navy.

And I am so very grateful to this nation for entrusting me with this honor and this privilege.

I would do it all again, in a heartbeat.

Finally, Leonard Cohen's Suzanne came to mind as I walked the sidewalks of this over-55 community, where probably two out of three of my neighbors voted for the man who is the antithesis of everything my service stood for. It came to mind because of the analogy I made of character as the vessel that conveys our souls.

I guess I'm feeling kind of religious.

Anyway, this came to mind:

And Jesus was a sailor

When He walked upon the water

And He spent a long time watching

From His lonely wooden tower

And when He knew for certain

Only drowning men could see Him

He said, "All men will be sailors then

Until the sea shall free them"

Finally, may I humbly request of my small audience, if you feel any today's posts have any worth or merit, today at least, please share them. (Use the permalinks. This will scroll off the home page tomorrow.)

Thank you.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 07:54 Monday, 11 November 2024

Equality Before the Law

I had intended to include this in the preceding piece, but it slipped my mind as I went along and I don't wish to insert it there now.

As a member of our nation's armed forces, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution of the United States. There is no oath to the commander in chief. We swear to obey the orders, the lawful orders of the commander in chief, but we swear no oath to him. (Or her. Someday.)

Foundational to the Constitution of the United States is the idea that all citizens are equal before the law.

We know from experience, as a practical matter, that this is often not the case. But that is not from design, it is from a failure to keep faith with the values imbued in the Constitution. So it is no excuse to abandon those values.

The Supreme Court ruled that the president is above the law, even in the limited circumstances that Justice Roberts seems to feel justifies this dishonorable betrayal of every veteran who swore an oath to support and defend Constitution of the United States.

How can all Americans be entitled to "equal protection under the law," if the law of the land is that one man is above the law?

This was a slap in the face of every veteran.

A sign of contempt for the value of their service and sacrifice.

And every bit congruent with the contempt and ignorance and narcissistic nihilism of the man who appointed three of those justices.

America is capsized. And it will take a long time before we right the ship.

And it may sink before we can.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 06:38 Monday, 11 November 2024

Veterans Day

Some of the most important lessons of my life were learned in the Navy. Not because the Navy taught them to me, in a pedagogical sense; but because military service can offer good opportunities to learn those lessons, if you're paying attention.

First, I should say why they were "important," that is, "of great significance or value."

Value. Definitions often become recursive, where words refer to synonyms to supposedly "define" meaning. One definition of value is, "the importance of something." Also, "worth" and "usefulness."

If you live long enough, and are blessed or privileged enough to do so with surplus in your life, you may become aware of a certain aspect of the experience of being. An interior emptiness, or disquiet as you regard all the effort and activity of your life, the material things that accumulate and surround it, and you wonder what it all "means." What it's all "for."

Most of us in America are blessed with surplus in our lives. Even many of those supposedly unhappy with their circumstances. I'm relatively confident that they experience this question too, perhaps often.

What does it all mean?

Meaning is important. It's like "stability" in naval architecture. Stability is that feature of a ship's design that determines its ability to remain upright among the forces the sea imposes on it. It may heel to port or starboard due to wind or wave action, but it resists that force and when it is removed, it returns to a level, upright orientation.

If a vessel is unstable, or lacks sufficient stability, it will capsize when subjected to forces other than buoyancy and gravity. It may not sink, though it probably will, but its utility as ship is gone. If it doesn't sink, it becomes a hazard to navigation.

Meaning is what helps provide stability in the interior experience of our lives. It's what resists the vicissitudes of day to day existence, and keeps us upright and moving forward.

Habit can do the same thing, but not to the same extent, not with the same strength. People without meaning in their lives rely on habit, and are often capsized by the cruel fortunes of fate.

Where does "meaning" come from?

Some people find it in the tenets of a particular faith. This is perhaps one of the largest, if not to say "greatest," sources of meaning for many people. Others can find meaning in philosophy, education.

But these are external sources. Abstractions, ideas, that come from outside of our lived experience. We are embodied beings, and lived experience is the "reality" of our lives. And lived experience is where we have the opportunity to make "real" meaning.

Something that I learned, in part through my service as an officer in the Navy, in part through my service as a husband and a father, and in part through the facilitation of an experienced counselor, is that life is meaningless. That may come as a surprise to some.

We bring meaning to life.

We make meaning.

And I suppose I should point out here, that everything you're reading is an abstraction. It is the distillation of my lived experience, and it will remain an abstraction to you, forever. To know what I'm writing about, you'll have to live it yourself. Then it will become your reality.

So, Veterans Day. What is it about?

Ostensibly, it's a day set aside by our nation to honor veterans. A day when all Americans, presumably, acknowledge in some way the value and meaning of the service and sacrifice of those Americans who served this nation in its armed forces. Who wore the uniform of their country, and represented its values to the world.

Mostly I think it's just a Monday holiday for people. But maybe that's just me being cynical.

So another word that we have to define, "honor." I've done that before, but I'll do it again.

Honor is both a noun and a verb. I'll define the noun first, and I'll do it without looking it up in the dictionary.

"Honor" is that quality of individual character that is earned or accrued through the action of upholding the shared values of the group. Someone who has honor, has kept faith, with shared values. It is achieved in action, it is not accrued passively.

Honor is supposedly a good quality, a desirable one. We uphold honorable people as examples for how we should live our lives. As exemplars of the goodness of our values.

As we do on Veterans Day.

Presumably.

"Honor," the verb is a transitive verb. An action verb. You do it to something. My favorite kind of verb. Yours too, if you have a bias toward action.

When we "honor" someone, we call attention to them from the group. For a period of time, the attention of the group is directed toward the individual or people being honored. This is intentional. It has some importance, some value. The attention of the group is intended to be favorable, to be respectful, to be an affirmation toward the object of the attention.

It should be, it's intended to be, reciprocal. In one direction, it rewards the people receiving the attention. In the other direction, it affirms to the group, that this is an example.

Here is a life, or here are the lives, of people who upheld our shared values through action. These are people who can be examples, whose lives or whose actions are worthy (value) of emulating.

And by emulating those lives, those actions, we will make meaning in our own lives.

We will reify what formerly had only been abstractions. We will accrue honor in our lives. We will make meaning, and add stability and strength to our own moral character, the vessel that carries our immortal souls through the rocks and shoals, heavy seas, dark and lonely nights in the sea of existence.

I find this lacking in America. Some enormous part of America is lost. Capsized. A hazard to navigation.

The most recent election of a dishonorable man is a manifestation of the lack of meaning in American life. It's more akin to nihilism. That nothing matters, nothing means anything.

So it is with some bitterness that I come to today's Veterans Day.

This is not to shame anyone, though I wish that those who voted for him might have the capacity to feel shame.

This is just the sad, bitter reality we face today.

What helps me is the meaning I have found in my own life. I won't go and do anything stupid, because, while I may be heeled over at the moment, I know I'll return to an even keel. I don't need to panic.

"Just be cool, she'll hold." Perfect Tommy.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 05:36 Monday, 11 November 2024

On A Lighter Note…

Mitzi was waffling a bit this morning. She has worries about isolation in a rural area of New York in winter. I view isolation as advantageous if another pandemic arises. But I gather it may not be reluctance to leave Florida, so much as not wanting to move to a rural home.

My biggest objective is to get out of Florida. Rural is a secondary objective, though very much a desirable one for me.

In any case, I find myself thinking more about how to facilitate our departure.

One thought that came to mind on my walk this morning is getting rid of this 2019 27" iMac. I like it for editing photos, and watching videos. But the big screen requires managing all that real estate, and now Apple has decided to "help" with whatever it is that feature in Sequoia is called that grabs my windows and plays with them as I'm trying to arrange them. Maddening.

It's got a 3.6 GHz 8-Core Intel Core i9, and a Radeon Pro Vega 48 with 8GB of VRAM, and 128GB of RAM 2667MHz DDR4 RAM installed.

I seldom encounter RAM limitations, but the fans are spinning up all the time, and I still encounter the Spinning Pinwheel of Infinite Futility far too often.

I've got the 14" M3 MacBook Pro with 24GB of RAM ,and I suspect that it'll meet my needs as well, or better, than the iMac.

If I get rid of this enormous computer, I can get rid of this enormous desk. Then maybe I can put something in the office that'll accommodate one or more of the Apple IIs. Doesn't have to be anything fancy.

We wouldn't be moving this desk in any case, but having it out of the house might offer a psychological lift.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 10:36 Sunday, 10 November 2024

Reassessing

This is the time of year when I often give some money to a number of Florida non-profits, chiefly in the environmental area. I'm reconsidering all of that now, as I think Florida is probably a lost cause at this point.

A lot of good, important work can be done, but it will ultimately prove futile. In any case, if Republicans value Florida's environment, let them pay for it.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 10:29 Sunday, 10 November 2024

The Writing On the Wall

It may be behind a paywall for you, but in case it's not, this was an interesting read this morning.

A relevant quote:

The widely-held assumption about hurricanes and tidal surge has been that, if it hasn’t happened before, it’s unlikely to happen at all, and even if it has happened before, it’s less likely to happen again any time soon. But it is increasingly clear that Florida’s relationship with the natural environment is no longer what the past has led us to expect.

A more straightforward construction might have been, "Florida's relationship with the natural environment is no longer what it was in the past, so your expectations lack historical foundation."

Although it may be confirmation bias on my part, but it seems to me that it is beginning to dawn on a significant number of people that Florida is facing a profound challenge, and one that it is ill-prepared to confront.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 10:21 Sunday, 10 November 2024

Internal Migration

James responds to my somewhat intemperate critique of his post-election thoughts. (FYI, I know James is moving his blog to Substack, and I admit I haven't quite gotten around to making the change here. "Old habits," and so on.)

I think his idea about "group identification" is a bit thin, but perhaps that's an artifact of a brief blog post. The coalition that enabled a convicted felon to become president is by no means a monolith. Whatever Venn diagram that encompasses that group of voters, the only thing in common among the entire group is their selection of the prospective Felon-in-Chief.

Even among those celebrating his coronation, their happiness and joy likely comes from different sources. I'm sure at least some of them are looking forward to their tips and Social Security not being taxed. Others are hopeful that a nationwide abortion ban may be enacted. Some probably don't even know why they voted for him, other than they think Joe Rogen and Elon Musk are cool, so Orange Jesus must be cool too.

As a "group identity," I think it may be somewhat fragile, and there may be a way to chip off portions of the segments that gave him a majority. But, that may be wishful thinking on my part.

As regards how we interact with people in proximity on the "other side," we just don't talk about politics. That said, I also don't actively seek them out for casual social interactions. They're likely to be informants soon. (I'm sure there's a constituency of Karens who are likewise celebrating the elevation of the architect of insurrection. They're looking forward to having the DHS and ICE "deport-a-migrant" hotline on speed-dial.)

A couple of years ago, I wrote about meeting a couple who were enthusiastic supporters of Hannibal Lector's biggest fan. I suppose I had a greater reserve of empathy then, and lamented the binary, zero-sum mindset that divided us from one another. (No doubt an early "failure of imagination," that we would fairly soon find ourselves, once again, plagued by this huckster gifted with low animal cunning and a reality distortion field that makes Steve Jobs' OG-RDF look like a cheap parlor trick.)

Today, I'm not so magnanimous. I live in an area where the concentration of rightwing zealots has achieved a critical mass of self-sustaining chain reactionaries. I wave and say "Hi," but yeah, I'm not going go hang with these people. They're so confident that everyone around them thinks like they do, that it'll inevitably come up and I'll have to excuse myself.

Anyway, there are many ways to be an awful person, and we all share that in common.

So, migration.

Moving is such a pain in the ass that I don't know that I would leave Florida just because of its neo-fascist government. In many ways, it has become an ideal state to grow old and die in. We're surrounded with a wide array of medical facilities within a very easy drive. Because so many people retire to Florida to die here, there's a lot of hospice care available, as well as memory-care and assisted-living facilities.

Wherever we go, it won't be as convenient to grow old and die.

For me, probably 90% of the decision is climate vulnerability and risk. I have no wish to endure "recovery" as an old man. I'd rather deal with the day-to-day inconveniences of long drives to medical appointments, short days, cold winters and the occasional whiff of cow manure, than share the communal experience of dragging all our shit to the curb.

BTW, we are effectively disenfranchised here. Not just in St Johns County, but in most of Florida's counties, due to gerrymandering and closed primaries. Elections are won in the primaries where only Republicans can vote, having put up a straw-man "write-in" candidate on the ballot to close the primary. A "write-in" candidate is the cheapest way to get on the ballot. You're asserting that you'll raise no money, spend no money, you just want to be on the ballot. It think it costs $25. And, voila! Primary closed!

In those counties that might be competitive, Republicans put up sham candidates with similar names to the Democratic candidate, and then throw tens of thousands of dollars of advertising at them to dilute the Democratic vote.

It's not like they're interested in our ideas of how to make it better.

It's a horrible state. But it's been that way for a long time, and we're still here.

Not for long though. Mitzi was talking about "architects" yesterday...

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 05:54 Sunday, 10 November 2024

It’s Not Easy Being Green

Green tree frong on a brown gutter downspout against a stucco wall.

I'm not walking for pace yet, so I'm bringing along the OM-5 with the 14-150mm zoom mounted. Stepped outside the other morning and there were three of these guys on the wall. This one was the largest.

Mitzi had some exterior lighting mounted in the soffits and they attract bugs, making for a kind of buffet for tree frogs. So maybe it's a little easier, bein' green.

Shot a rose and a little blue heron this morning. Couldn't decide between the rose and the heron, so the frog was it.

And, huh...

Just noticed that I managed to lose the viewfinder eyecup on the OM-5. Bummer. I'm sure that little piece of plastic is going to cost $30 or more... Not the first time. Probably won't be the last. I'll order a new one when we get back in December.

Mitzi and I had dinner tonight with a couple I've known for more than 30 years.

We talked about my "risk assessment," and found that they agreed. They're looking at property in North Carolina, though Helene has altered their thinking regarding location, hydrology becoming a key element. North Carolina being "less red," also factors into their choice, along with an intolerance of northeast winters.

Anyway, life goes on.

And always remember...

No matter where you go, there you are.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 21:09 Saturday, 9 November 2024

Insurance

This is a long video, but if you live in Florida, or are considering moving to Florida, you should probably watch it. This is the hellscape of risk you are entering. And please recall that the Republican Party has been completely in control of Florida's government for more than a generation.

We really need to get out of here. Hope we do it in time.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 11:28 Saturday, 9 November 2024

Ah, Florida

The picture is starting to come into focus...

I shouldn't trash-talk this state so much. We'll need someone to buy our house. Hopefully we'll be out of here before it becomes so blindingly obvious that everyone flees the state.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 11:02 Saturday, 9 November 2024

Sore

In my experience, muscle soreness is always worse the second day after the exertion. My experience holds.

Surprisingly, my biceps hurt more than anything else, as in, they're the only thing that hurts! And I thought they were the ones in best shape! Oy!

I'm still sore about the self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head the nation experienced on Tuesday too.

But I'm doing fairly well avoiding the news. Plenty of it shows up in the blogs I follow, and texts from people I know. Again, there's nothing I can do about it and so there's little reason to know about it. So call me a "know-nothing," I don't care. Knowing something doesn't seem to help.

I need to dig into Sequoia's settings to figure out how to turn off this new "window management" thing. I'm sliding windows around to do something I want, and they take on a life of their own, jumping here and there and expanding. It's infuriating. Fuck Apple! God damn it! Just fix broken shit! There's plenty of that!

Mitzi's beginning to enter the "concepts of a plan" phase. She's talking about not buying all new furniture again, so a storage unit is in our future while we figure out where we're actually going to land.

I'm letting her go at her own pace. Right now she's leaning toward finding another place up there and selling the one she already owns. I'm not in favor of that. I'd rather build on the two acres we've got. I like the location, the view and, so far, the neighbors don't scare me. But I might change my mind if she finds the right place. I'll have more of a say then because I'll have my stake in this place to work with. I think next summer is going to be a scouting and reconnaissance mission to establish the final objective.

Then the real planning will begin.

I hate moving. It's a pain in the ass. But it's less of a pain in the ass than losing all the furniture and dealing with the bureaucracy of "recovery."

Last night, during a small bout of insomnia, I kind of went over the risk assessment again. "Low-probability, high-impact." Significant cost to moving. May never have an extreme weather event that puts us in a "recovery" phase with thousands of other people.

That's the key thing. There are a lot of low-probability, high-impact events that can happen to us individually, anywhere. Those are the things we insure against, and if they happen we're dealing with our insurance company, some contractors and maybe the county.

In a (un)natural disaster, we may be among thousands of people impacted by the event. And while there may be more financial resources available, everything takes longer, is more bureaucratic. How do you vet your contractor? How do you guard against fraud? Do we live in New York and try to manage recovery remotely? How does that work? Where do we find temporary housing locally, with thousands of people looking for the same thing?

Then there's our age, our stage of life. Maybe nothing happens here for ten years. Then something does when we're in our late 70s. Or later. How are we prepared to cope with that situation at that stage of our lives? I'd have my kids relatively nearby to help, but they may be coping with the effects of the same event! How much assistance can they really be?

No, Florida is too vulnerable to large scale natural disasters. Every part of Florida is.

Concluded moving is the right thing to do. The sooner the better. Plus, this state is just awful, politically. Not just the ideology, or the cruelty. It's the incompetence. Again, gerrymandering guarantees you are going to get more extreme politicians, not necessarily more competent ones. Florida has been, and will be, made more vulnerable because of legislative stupidity. It's not going to cure itself.

Assessment affirmed.

Went back to sleep.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 07:36 Saturday, 9 November 2024

In Other News

Mitzi and I went to our intake evaluations with our new personal fitness trainer. It wasn't really an evaluation so much as just kind of an introduction to the equipment. All light weights, ten reps, two sets. He includes some cardio on the recumbent bike. He set the level at 2, which I wanted to increase and he objected.

Level 2 is too "easy" for me, so my cadence went up to 100, and then my heart went up to over 160bpm. (The bike reported 200, but that was wrong, so I used my watch.) We could still chat, but it was about at the limit for me.

The second time on the bike, I bumped the level up to 4 and that brought my cadence down to 85, and my heart rate in the 140s, reaching 150-something after three minutes.

The third time, I did level 5 and kept the cadence at 80 and kept my heart rate down in the 140s.

Anyway, it's hard for me to pedal at a lower cadence with no load, and it's the cadence that seems to drive my heart rate, more so than the load. When I'm biking on my bike, and kind of "making an effort," my heart rate is usually in the 140s. It's not exhausting and I can do it for an extended period of time, certainly for the 30 to 45 minutes I ride my bike.

Going by the usual rule of thumb that your maximum heart rate is 220 minus your age, mine should be about 153, and 80% of that is only 122. I think my max these days is probably above 170, not that I think that makes me any "younger." (140/.8 = 175)

They have "stretch" machines, which were unfamiliar to me. The good news is that I seem to be fairly flexible. On the hamstring stretch I was able to reach 95° (max is 110°) and on the quad stretch I basically max'ed it out, though I started to feel some cramping in my calf. I changed my foot flexion to be more perpendicular, stretching my calf, and that went away.

For having done almost no resistance training in years (I occasionally do some push-ups, just to make sure I still can.), it felt like a good workout. I'm a bit stiff and sore this morning.

I'm looking forward to doing this. I want to get in better shape so I can do more physical work, whether that's hiking in the Finger Lakes or doing chores, or dragging my shit to the curb if we get flooded out before we manage to escape.

It's pretty clear that life is going to be more challenging for everyone in the coming years, and being in better shape should help to endure those vicissitudes with a little less suffering.

And I also know that I'm far more successful in these kinds of sustained efforts when I have a partner or a group to do them with. Accountability seems to be an important motivator for me. We have good facilities, access to a personal trainer, the means to afford one, and so I want to try and take the most advantage of those things as part of our preparation for leaving.

Mitzi is still somewhat unsettled, but she's been talking about a number of different scenarios and approaches, so I know it's being actively considered as a live proposition. Hasn't transitioned to planning yet, but I think we'll get there.

For me, the primary impetus is climate vulnerability, and secondary is this is a hostile political climate. It seems to be the reverse for her. Whatever the case, both of us getting in better shape should help that effort.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 10:24 Friday, 8 November 2024

Temperament

Any theory of mind must account for temperament. The innate disposition of individuals and how they relate to "the world," and perhaps their own interior experience.

I should preface by saying that I think temperament may be malleable over time. Experience can shape it. Some of it may be shaped epigenetically in the womb. But it exists.

Some people are more comfortable with the chaos and uncertainty of democratic forms of government. Others would prefer a more "orderly" form of government.

Some people are open to new experience, others find them discomforting.

Some people are extroverts, others are introverts.

Temperament doesn't determine whether people do "good" or "bad" things. But it can help shape the outcomes of large scale events.

I think a pronounced affinity for a "strong" form of government probably exists in about a third of any given population. They like certainty, action, clarity. That's a pretty significant constituency to build from, if you're an ambitious politician inclined the same way, or willing to exploit it.

It wasn't just the eggs. It wasn't just racism and misogyny. It wasn't just Gaza or Israel. It wasn't just the raw milk raid. It wasn't just that working class voters can't relate to college-educated voters. It wasn't just that the Democratic Party has ceased being the party of the working class and is now the party of the college educated.

It was all of the above, layered over temperament, media diet, selfishness, cynicism, ignorance, greed, ambition and a complex interior emotional state that tries to order all of that into conscious awareness that makes some kind of "sense."

I alluded in the first paragraph that temperament may also influence how one relates to one's own interior experience. Whether one is more inclined or less inclined to self-reflection or introspection.

We are complicated beings. Consciousness may be a complex, non-linear dynamic system.

Perhaps that should admit some room for empathy.

But then there's temperament again.

"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes," as the cool kids say.

This complicated consciousness is disinclined toward empathy; because regardless of how anyone feels about anything, it should have been clear that the President-elect is unfit for office. I mean, when a Marine four-star general who worked for him tells you that...

Yet, here we are.

Yes, I do get why people chose to ignore his manifest unfitness.

But it was a choice. And choices have consequences.

"Fuck around and find out," is the other popular idiomatic expression of that incontrovertible fact.

Choices have consequences.

And maybe those consequences will open a path to recovering the "muddy middle."

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 07:47 Friday, 8 November 2024

Theory of Mind

Over at On Deciding... Better, James writes:

I will say that it troubles me that we half the country looking at the other half of the country saying, “I can’t understand how you could have voted for him/her”. And really meaning it. That they cannot summon an empathy, a theory of mind that lets them imagine being someone on the other side.

I think this statement is too general. I, for example, have no problem at all understanding how they could have voted for the result we achieved. I do have a theory of mind that allows me to imagine being someone on the other side; and I've heard and read some pretty good analyses, which offer some very good ideas about theories of mind for all of the elements of what was ultimately a broad coalition of disparate minds that achieved that result.

I will admit that I have little empathy for those minds.

To the extent that some of them acted from ignorance due to being misled and deceived, I have some empathy. To the extent that people sometimes lose their way due to fear or its derivative, anger, I have less empathy, but some.

But I believe that somewhere between 35 and 45 percent of Americans, those who have been the President-elect's "base" since day one, haven't lost their way. They are on exactly the path they wish to be on, and their ignorance is willful, and celebrated. They have contempt for education, intelligence, expertise.

And for them, I have absolutely no empathy.

I have no quarrel with his views on the effects of a two-party system, and the "us and them" division that accompanies it. And we agree that much of this self-sorting is "by feel," an emotional response rather than a strictly cognitive, rational one.

But I've been seeing a fair amount of this as well:

To my way of thinking, honest empathy is the only way to improve our ability to engage others productively rather than simple cheering for our side and insults for the other side.

And I disagree strongly.

At least, I do so to the suggestion that the side that opposed the result must call upon resources of "honest empathy" and "engage others."

The theory of mind that most accounts for what I observed, and personal experience with people on that side, tells me that they don't wish to be "engaged," other than to argue, solely for the emotional response it stimulates for them.

They will welcome a fight, they're not interesting in a discussion. They're uninterested in understanding. There is no wish to find common ground, to compromise, to work together. Their's is an absolute, zero-sum view of the world.

What James suggests smacks of "both sides" equivalency.

One side, our side, "scolds." The other side hates it. They feel it comes from a place of superiority, either moral or intellectual, and that they're being talked down to. Ok, there's perhaps some legitimacy to that. But criticism, opprobrium, vilification are appropriate responses to extreme rhetoric.

The other side bullies, with overt threats of violence, sometimes acts of violence, when they wish to reject or criticize the rhetoric of our side.

There is no curiosity on the majority side. Curiosity, empathy, the willingness to engage with others, those are the features that are representative of the losing side.

Willful ignorance, greed, cynicism, zero-sum thinking, a willingness to believe in conspiracy theories, bigotry, fear, anger, those are the qualities that are representative of the winning side.

To the extent that we may be able to "go forward" someday, it will only be after the "muddy middle," those who were misled and deceived, who can have their eyes opened, the ones who can still find their way out of the deep weeds they've wandered into, have an experience which prompts that.

Consequences.

This is a dangerous course. But I don't see any other way through. This gets worse before its gets better, because all other paths are closed to us.

How might we do better someday? That's a hypothetical that is likely to remain strictly hypothetical. But better education. More access to mental health services. Regulation of Big Tech and social media. Those would be a start.

We're unlikely to get the opportunity to do any of that. And it would be opposed every step of the way by that portion of the population that regards all those things with suspicion, and the ambitious and opportunistic who exploit them.

I live in a very deep red county. Public policy in Florida, for decades, since Republicans came to hold all the branches of government a generation ago, has been defined by a profound and malignant indifference to the suffering of others. And by "others," I mean "others." Anyone who lives in the margins. It has gotten worse as elections in a gerrymandered state are won in the primaries, and the only way to beat your opponent is to be more extreme for the only voters who turn out in primaries, the most extreme.

Opportunities for constructive engagement don't exist here. They are unwelcome.

We are unwelcome.

So we're going to leave.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 05:34 Friday, 8 November 2024

Things to Consider

I slept ok last night. I guess resolved uncertainty is conducive to better sleep.

In many ways, the election result is a windfall for the click-harvesting, eyeball-tracking media/advertising industrial complex. Four years of destruction, broken norms, shocking grift, incompetence, stupidity, collusion and decline are a rich source of click-bait.

So if we want to maintain our mental health, we're going to have to learn to tune most of this stuff out.

Yes, things are going to get worse. But do we need to know all of it, all the time? Especially when there's very little we can do about it?

I don't think so.

I have a predilection, maybe an addiction, to doom-scrolling, and I know it's not healthy.

How does being informed about the relentless degradation of our government and institutions change anything?

I have to believe they're actually looking forward to the first mass protests so they can deploy the National Guard and maybe shoot a few people. Establish expectations.

Anyway, in a reality where everything is going to be more challenging, looking after our own health is going to be very important, especially our mental health. It's attractive, perhaps, to have the notion that "I shall bear witness! I will not look away!" But I think "bearing witness" in this environment is like vowing to run an ultra-marathon, when maybe the most you've ever done before is a neighborhood 5K.

It'll kill ya.

So I'm going to try to read more books, take more walks, ride my bike more, and lift weights. Time spent doing that is time away from the news (except in the gym, alas),and an investment in myself and in a stronger array of personal resilience resources.

I'm not going to look away. But I'm not wasting my time staring into the abyss either.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 07:38 Thursday, 7 November 2024

How Do You Know When Democracy Is Over?

Screenshot of a piece from The Atlantic entitled Democracy Is Not Over

Seems like a tell.

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 07:36 Thursday, 7 November 2024

Ahead of The Curve

Another dimension of the multi-crisis. Hopefully, we're up on step. ("We" as in the first person plural, personal. My wife and I.)

Figure it out. Make a plan. Get there as soon as you feasibly can. The profiteers and money-grabbers will be there sooner than you think.

(Also, it's 77°F at 2200 in fucking November.)

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Originally posted at Nice Marmot 21:51 Wednesday, 6 November 2024