I wonder if I should have a glossary in the marmot that explains what I mean when I use certain words.

When I write "existential," I'm not referring to "existence" in the context of the human species. I'm afraid we're like cockroaches, we'll be hard to make extinct. I'm referring to this present civilization. A highly advanced, technology dependent, resource-intensive civilization that supports a population of 8 billion people.

Without this present civilization, we couldn't support that number of people.

And soon, we won't.

That's not a conspiracy. It's just a sober consideration of the facts.

At some point, probably before 2100, certainly not long after, there are going to be far fewer people on this planet.

How we get there is the critical question. There may be humane paths, but taking them is the problem.

People, especially authors, like to point out that there have been "doomsday" predictions for as long as this civilization has existed, and yet it's still here. They like to believe that the present predictions will likewise prove baseless as well. Paul Ehrlich wasn't wrong overall. The "green revolution" occurred where we could employ technology and resource-intensive agricultural methods to feed a burgeoning population. That works as long as you have resources, chiefly energy, though fertilizer and water and a stable climate can't be overlooked.

Some optimists like to point out that birth rates fall as standards of living rise, and that many parts of the world are experiencing problematic population declines. (But don't want immigrants.) So the thinking is economic growth will elevate standards of living, women will have fewer children and populations will decline naturally. Non-violently. Not through starvation and deprivation.

That's assuming there are enough resources remaining to offer that level of economic prosperity to the parts of the world that lack it, and that we can do so without inducing catastrophic climate consequences. (Personally, I'm not convinced 1.5°C of warming is "safe." We're not quite there yet, and things are looking pretty dire already.)

So, it's a race. The optimists don't believe it's already over, and we lost.

If they're right, they have an extremely narrow path.

We shall see, I'm afraid.

Originally posted at Nice Marmot 06:19 Wednesday, 3 April 2024