I don't watch live cable news, but I've been browsing many of the YouTube channels. I watched Biden's address at his 4th of July barbecue. I think I understand what's going on when he speaks. It's somewhat like when I try to write in handwriting. My brain gets ahead of my hand and I start writing a word that's five words ahead of where the last word ended.
Now, he did forget Belleau Wood. Maybe I would too. He knows he's in the spotlight, so there's the pressure not to fuck up, which doesn't help in his circumstance. He reaches for a word, can't find it and realizes he has to move on and not be seen struggling to find it. It's hard.
I also watched the Hawaiian governor, whose name I can't recall, talk about meeting with Biden and I liked what he had to say. But I also watched a CNN panel on growing interest or movement toward Harris. That Biden is almost certainly "fine," right now, but he's not going to get "better." That we're going to experience more slips, more awkward moments.
This is unprecedented in our history. If we go by precedent, incumbents who don't run again, their replacements lose. Humphrey in '68. Not a large data set.
There's the campaign infrastructure. If the party changes candidates, all that has to get rebooted. Harris is the logical choice because she's largely been vetted before, but it'll all be rehashed again. She will at least have had the experience of enduring it once before, and it's less likely to throw her off her game. She knows how to respond already, it's in muscle memory. There's less media frenzy.
Likewise, I think the campaign infrastructure should be able to pivot to Harris relatively smoothly, though I'm certain she'd bring in her own senior staff and advisors, and how they get along with the remaining Biden people is a question. I think the stakes we're facing would make most of them fall in line pretty quickly.
I don't see Joe presenting well. I think he's fine cognitively, but the duties of the office are demanding enough, add to that the pressure of a campaign and the fact of his age and I just don't think he will be able to assuage people's fears that he's too old.
A Harris candidacy does flip the script on the age issue. We're still saddled with the border and the perception of the economy, but now Trump is the "too old" candidate.
I don't know if Harris can pull together the same coalition that Biden drew. It may depend on her choice of running mate. It's a question. I think she'd mobilize women perhaps more, or with greater enthusiasm than Biden, but I think most of them would be voting for Biden anyway, so it's marginal. But these races seem to be decided on narrow margins. Though we can't forget the absurdity of the Electoral College.
I don't think Joe should resign and give Harris an incumbency. If he steps aside as a candidate, I think he should continue to run the country and address the nation as the president about the stakes of this election. I think, without the pressure of campaign scrutiny, he could be an effective communicator regarding the danger represented by Trump.
We are in uncharted waters. I still believe that many people calling for Biden to step aside are doing so for self-serving reasons. I think if he does decide to withdraw his candidacy, that Harris is the only logical candidate to replace him. I'll support whoever the nominee is, but the sooner we get this resolved, the better.
Whatever chance we have to navigate the turbulent waters facing this civilization and our children and grandchildren, it is with leadership that at least tries to embrace humane values, that exhibits empathy, that is inclusive and not divisive.
This will be one of the most consequential elections in the history of the United States, certainly since Lincoln; maybe Roosevelt given that Lincoln saved the union while Roosevelt perhaps saved the world.
Who knew we'd live to see such times?
Originally posted at Nice Marmot 08:58 Friday, 5 July 2024