Figured this post belonged here rather than in the marmot.

Mitzi and I have been watching events related to extreme weather and talking. We've even been doing a mental exercise, looking at houses in other states.

Moving is an enormous pain in the ass, to say nothing of an expense. But living in Florida is a gamble.

Apart from the fascist nature of state government, climate and economics are making the state unsafe as well. The insurance crisis is just waiting to explode. Another Ian will do it. I don't know what premiums will do, and I suppose we may be able to afford a 100% or 200% increase, at an opportunity cost of some magnitude. But it will compel some people to leave, make some people homeless if they can't go without insurance because of their mortgage, and shake up the real estate market.

The "fixes" the legislature enacted mostly benefit the insurance companies by making it easier to deny claims. When people start going without insurance because it's unaffordable, and insurance companies don't pay adequate amounts to recover, neighborhoods will decline following a hurricane. They won't be able to recover. Someone has already coined "DeSantisville" as a sea of blue tarps.

Property values will tank. People will bolt, the ones who can anyway, because the handwriting is on the wall.

The race to the bottom will begin.

Most people won't be able to move. Jobs. Family. But the "wealth" that's locked up in their home values will tank, for many, the largest asset in their portfolio. We thought that the value of this home would be something we could leave to our kids, but I suspect it's going to be a lot less than we might have hoped for a few years ago.

I don't know what we're going to do. If we were better situated, I suppose we'd buy a "second home" in a safer state. Someplace to land if this place gets wiped out. But we're not so well situated that we can afford a second home. And moving after we've spent so much time and money making this place the way we want it is almost impossible to contemplate. And we're not getting any younger, either.

I guess we're just going to have to get used to holding our breath and hoping.

Welcome to "the free state of Florida."

Originally posted at Notes From the Underground 06:34 Saturday, 22 July 2023