I haven't been sleeping well with Mitzi away. While I'm not sleeping, I seem to do a lot of "thinking." It's always important to recall that the internal voice is an unreliable narrator, but every now and then it may offer something insightful.

As is probably clear from much of the marmot in recent months, if not years, I've been struggling with my emotions regarding the unfolding climate catastrophe. The cognitive dissonance of the world largely carrying on with business as usual while the collapse of this civilization slowly begins unfolding before us is hard to accept.

So the other night I somehow made a connection between the end of my marriage and the end of this civilization. My marriage ended, but I'm still here. This civilization may end, but people will still be here. Between now and then, there's a lot of suffering, to be sure. But there was suffering in my marriage already, and there's plenty of suffering already in this civilization.

My marriage failed because I, probably "we," but I can only speak for myself, believed things that weren't true. This civilization is ending largely for the same reason. I've been happier living "in truth," than in clinging to things that were instilled in me that aren't true. (For one example, no one is responsible for my feelings other than me. ("I"?) Popular culture tells us that others can "make" us happy, mad, sad, etc. That's a myth that we use to blame others, elevate others, control others, and deny our own responsibility.)

I'm aware that the "five stages of grief" are largely in disfavor today; but I happen to think they are closer to being right than wrong, although I agree that the concept of "stages" can be misunderstood. The boundaries may be smeared, and the process isn't strictly one-directional at all times. There can be plenty of moving back and forth between adjacent stages. And I believe the order I use may be unconventional. That is, some place anger before bargaining, but I believe it's the reverse. That is, "denial, bargaining, anger, depression and finally, acceptance."

We have been in the "denial" stage on climate for decades, since at least 1980. We are presently in the "bargaining" phase, as we half-heartedly embrace measures intended to address the damage we've done to our atmosphere. These will prove to be too little, too late and what follows then will be anger.

What is perhaps unclear to much of the world is that this isn't just an environmental disaster. The myths we believed that allowed us to foul our nest are the same myths that undergird much of our advanced technological civilization, and many, if not all, are the fundamental tenets of "western" civilization. Myths about "freedom," "growth" and "property." Capitalism itself, and many others.

So while the evidence is very clear that our climate system has entered a new, disordered phase as it transitions to some new equilibrium eventually; it's less clear that our civilization has entered a new, disordered phase on a course to "degrowth" or "collapse." (Depending on your degree of optimism.)

Efforts to broker peace agreements in the Middle East and eastern Europe represent efforts in bargaining. The crisis at our southern border is an example of ongoing denial (by both parties, though Republicans are crueler, and happily so).

It hasn't become clear yet that the trajectory of this civilization is one of decline and fall. Musk may actually land a Starship on Mars (and it'll probably fall over), but the course is set. Some elements will continue to rise before all, ultimately, fall. Like the wealth of billionaires.

We will reach the stage of "anger" during the violent collapse of this civilization. How violent it will be is uncertain. We should be very lucky if we can avoid any kind of nuclear exchange, though regional ones at least seem likely.

I don't think anyone can say with confidence when all this is likely to occur, only that the process is underway and it's irreversible. I'm inclined to believe it will be before the end of this century.

Billions of people will die.

What follows immediately will be depression, grief, sadness, remorse. I rather expect there will also be plenty of denial among some of the survivors. ("I was a good German!" An affect, not an aspersion against Germans as a people. A more contemporary example would be "I was a good Republican!" Again, not an aspersion against Republicans as people. They will suffer as much as everyone else.)

Eventually, acceptance. Life will go on. Humanity will not go extinct. I suppose it's possible it could; but I think that's highly unlikely and if it did, well, there'd be no one around to care. The question is, what will we remember?

The seeds of our destruction lie in our own nature. How will we avoid repeating the same mistakes? Perhaps we won't. But we also won't have enormous quantities of fossil fuels to accelerate our growth and hubris. Maybe we'll become wiser if we grow more slowly. I don't know.

But I do know it's not possible to live an authentic life believing in things that aren't true. Believing lies inevitably leads to disaster.

Originally posted at Nice Marmot 07:21 Saturday, 27 January 2024